South Australia boasts as the "Vanguard" of the energy transition, generating a whopping 70% of its electricity from wind and solar with a goal of 100% by 2030. What's really going on?
I found it interesting that SA allowed the build of a fossil fueled power plant in 2019 ( & "un-mothball" Pelican Point) to cover for the failure of renewables reliability/intermittency. They were also sited near dense population (avoiding long transmission line issues).
Don't those two things amount to a tacit admission that:
1. the pursuit of 100% renewables is not feasible with current technology so the gov't acquiesced and allowed a long-life fossil fuel generator to be built. Or was this plant permitted in the first place so as to get in front of the other grid operators rebelling against their customer's forced subsidies of the SA grid.
and 2. public health considerations are not part of the decision tree as to where to site/operate fossil fuel generation plants. ("we can hide that as it's a different line item in the state budget"). I guess it's the same as Kenyans cooking indoors by burning wood/dung - knowing it's a health hazard but you have to eat!
It appears Australia is getting caught in the same doom loop as Germany. They are so far down the rabbit hole (in terms of face-saving and cost) that they feel they can only double down on a strategy that they intuitively (cravenly?) know will end badly.
Just shows how strong the green environmental lobbies are worldwide as they continue to gather funding at an accelerated pace.
I rue the day that Al Gore figured out that fear was a growth industry.
Thank you for the article! You again illustrate the shortcomings of LCOE -- if South Australia needs to have capacity equal to 5 times the electricity generated (and even then its grid is only 70% renewables), then we need to multiply LCOE solar costs by at least 5x, and that wouldn't even account for other costs such as storage and backup. (E.g. I would include the Barker Inlet gas plant capex and opex.)
It would be interesting to show what is the average grid price when SA exports electricity vs when it imports it. Julien Jomeaux has shown that Germany usually exports electricity when prices are negative and imports when prices are positive.
Excellent long form article and well researched.
I found it interesting that SA allowed the build of a fossil fueled power plant in 2019 ( & "un-mothball" Pelican Point) to cover for the failure of renewables reliability/intermittency. They were also sited near dense population (avoiding long transmission line issues).
Don't those two things amount to a tacit admission that:
1. the pursuit of 100% renewables is not feasible with current technology so the gov't acquiesced and allowed a long-life fossil fuel generator to be built. Or was this plant permitted in the first place so as to get in front of the other grid operators rebelling against their customer's forced subsidies of the SA grid.
and 2. public health considerations are not part of the decision tree as to where to site/operate fossil fuel generation plants. ("we can hide that as it's a different line item in the state budget"). I guess it's the same as Kenyans cooking indoors by burning wood/dung - knowing it's a health hazard but you have to eat!
It appears Australia is getting caught in the same doom loop as Germany. They are so far down the rabbit hole (in terms of face-saving and cost) that they feel they can only double down on a strategy that they intuitively (cravenly?) know will end badly.
Just shows how strong the green environmental lobbies are worldwide as they continue to gather funding at an accelerated pace.
I rue the day that Al Gore figured out that fear was a growth industry.
Great article!
Too bad the panels and turbines will have to be torn out and sent to the dump in 15 to 20 years.😖
Thank you for the article! You again illustrate the shortcomings of LCOE -- if South Australia needs to have capacity equal to 5 times the electricity generated (and even then its grid is only 70% renewables), then we need to multiply LCOE solar costs by at least 5x, and that wouldn't even account for other costs such as storage and backup. (E.g. I would include the Barker Inlet gas plant capex and opex.)
It would be interesting to show what is the average grid price when SA exports electricity vs when it imports it. Julien Jomeaux has shown that Germany usually exports electricity when prices are negative and imports when prices are positive.