In mid-January 2024, Alberta's grid experienced record electricity demand as Artic air sent temperatures plunging. Meanwhile, wind and solar output all but disappeared.
About a decade and a half ago, the Alberta PCs were looking at the prospects of nuclear power for Alberta. Albertans said no to it, because of legitimate safety concerns, and the problem with the disposal of the nuclear waste.
I see solar and wind as good technologies to supplement existing ones, but I can't imagine solar and wind being the main grid energy provides. It's dangerous and stupid to aim for that.
I personally think for the power grid nuclear is the best ecologic and scalable option.
Nuclear power is a very good option if it weren’t for the political and regulatory constraints. And as many other writers point out, nuclear is extremely expensive because we only build it once in a while. If we started building lots of nuclear power plants, we’d see the costs come down as we re-learned how to build them. And the grid would have a fantastic source of reliable and domestic power.
Wind and solar can realistically only save fuel for the grid. And that’s only when the sun is shining/ wind is blowing. As the Alberta case shows, you still need an entire grid to handle max electricity demand when wind and solar go missing. So if we’re honest about wind and solar, we’d only value them based on the fuel they save the grid as a whole.
But that’s the flaw with how politicians approach wind and solar: most don’t view the grid as a system and ignore the system costs of a technology.
These kind of analyses of local electrical grids clearly show that both wind and solar are highly constrained by geography. Solar and wind make sense for a few unusual geographies, but not most of the world. Particularly not in Asia where the majority of humans live and energy needs are the greatest.
Agreed, it's highly constrained. Solar and wind might make sense in a remote area with a lot of sun/wind that is otherwise fuel constrained to save fuel shipping costs to that area. But a one sized shoe doesn't fit everyone.
Thank you for this in depth look at the Alberta grid. I live in Alberta and there is a lot of criticism of our provincial government over the grid. Electricity in most provinces is a provincial government monopoly and prices are lower. But, these provinces have legacy hydroelectric power. Try to build a new hydroelectric dam. Our First Nations are sick and tired of having their land flooded out with minimal compensation. And, the population of Alberta keeps growing because we have a free enterprise spirit and an oil and gas industry that subsidizes the province. Overall it is a good place to live. We'll get some more gas fired power plants soon and the grid will be ok for awhile. The provincial government is trying to minimize the destabilizing effects of adding too many "renewables".
As an aside, I have an off grid cabin in British Columbia. I'm concerned about the new LiFeP batteries that are in a shed in the freezing cold. About -30C. I hope they survive. Anyone have any experience with this type of battery at these temperatures? I will find out soon enough if they survive this cold snap.
If you find out how the batteries preformed, please let us know. Unfortunately, no personal experience with LFP at those extreme temperatures. What do you use them for?
We have a 5kw solar panel setup with 10 kwh of LFP storage. Works well in summer. In early winter, I have had to heat the batteries with a propane heater in order to charge with a gas generator. I have a Sol Ark 12K inverter charger. All looks and works great when its warm. I only use this setup for recreation. And I am riding out this cold snap back in Alberta, in town, with good ol NG furnace roaring.
All the full time people near our cabin in BC that are off grid are trying to get on the BC grid but BC Power doesn't want to bring in power to isolated places anymore. There may be some frozen lead acid batteries in the neighborhood after this. I'll find out soon enough.
I went out to the BC cabin and stayed for a couple of days. The battery shed with the LFP batteries was -20C (-4F) inside on arrival. I had to heat the batteries to 5C with a propane heater and a space heater connected to the generator to get batteries warmed up enough to charge and discharge. It looks like the Sol Ark 12 K is set that way to protect the batteries.
I shut the heater off at night. One night got cold (-14C, 7F) and the system stopped working and shut down. In the morning I had to heat the batteries back up to 5C to get batteries working again.
I will do some modifications to the battery storage area with more insulation in winter and with a smaller area that requires heating. Maybe the batteries can handle the draw of a 100 watt small heater and this will be enough heat to keep the batteries working on cold nights.
One interesting observation on this trip is that I cleaned about 1 foot of snow off the solar panels. About 50% of the 5kw system had ice build up and wouldn't come clean. I managed to get a few hours of 750 watts or 14% of capacity that helped recharge the batteries.
Good thing I'm just doing this in my retirement for fun!
Thanks for the update. Very interesting to see how your experience matches what we’re seeing on a much larger scale with solar and storage on a much larger scale too.
There is justifiable criticism of the UCP government in Alberta, and the Alberta PCs, because of what they did, to cause these problems we are experiencing with our power generation system. When we, the power consumers, are allowed to get robbed, we don't end up being the winners. It's absolutely right to put the blame squarely on them for what has happened.
It is a crime what happened in Alberta. And the Keystone pipeline which would have exported badly needed heavy oil to US refineries. That's diesel and diesel is the life blood of the economy. The Crony Biden regime are traitors to America.
Nuclear was always the path forward for Alberta to clear the way for future Oil Sands development.
Bruce Power wanted to build 4.4 GW of domestic CANDU reactors near Peace River in 2007, instead of Alberta throwing $billions down the sewer on Chinese built nutty wind & solar scams. As soon as that project was announced these slimy, foreign funded ENGOs sprouted out of nowhere like "The Alliance for a Nuclear Free Alberta" which kiboshed the deal. The whole energy infrastructure in Alberta has been under supreme attack from foreign funded ENGOs, whom accept only one form of energy = nutty Wind & Solar scams. Anyone who supports wind & solar in Alberta is a toadie for the foreign agents of economic destruction for Alberta.
Fortunately, they are belatedly joining 3 other provinces in an SMR development program which would facilitate to using them for power and steam for Oil Sands extraction:
Strategic Plan for Deployment of SMRs Nuclear Power for Alberta, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick & Ontario, Small Modular Reactors. May 2022:
Fed up with those corrupt organizations destroying Alberta's economy, the Alberta Gov't funded Steve Allan to do the Nemeth Report, a public inquiry into anti-Alberta energy campaigns. Of course all the pseudo-environmentalists were screaming "CONSPIRACY THEORIES, CONSPIRACY THEORIES" at the top of their lungs. They sure didn't like anyone revealing the sources of their $billions in funding = foreign funded mostly.
The UCP made a bad assumption that Donald Trump would return to power for the second time. $7.5 billion was thrown away on the pipeline, because there are loan guarantees that are unaccounted for. It's par for the course, because the UCP have done so many pricey shenanigans, that cost us a fortune. The Alberta PCs were the exact same way, for an extremely long time.
By far and away the priciest shenanigans are funding nutty wind & solar scams that are a complete waste of capital. Alberta should always have pushed for nuclear in order to supply low emissions energy to the Oil Sands and the Alberta electrical supply.
Well Trump won the election, but it was stolen from him. Even the unelected Biden crony regime, if they weren't the enemies of the American people, would have gone ahead with Keystone. That they didn't is programmed destruction of the American economy, just as Trudeau is doing to Canada's economy. Not much you can do when your governments are the archenemy of the people or anti-populist. It's a time for revolution.
America is energy dominant!! We don’t need to rely on foreign countries like Trump and Bush before him wanted us to do. Obama and Biden made America energy dominant while Trump bankrupted the energy industry in 2020.
Much warmer down here in the western addition (10F currently). We have been feeding the "Old Timer" fireplace insert with oak for the last 2 days. Looks like the cold front will move out of the area in a couple of days.
Thanks for the details on how the grid was keep up during the latest weather event up north. The "Survive, not operate" detail seems to be important........ I recall that engine block heaters came in handy when trying to operate trucks/cars in upstate Minnesota during winter.
And what you're saying highlights the importance of having a backup system: A wood fireplace, dual fuel generator, something, to get people through this. Stay warm!
Cudos to the old fart electrical grid engineers and managers that didn't cave with no backup plan to the Green Weenies. You saved hundreds or thousands of lives. Well done.
That's not the cause of the problems in Alberta. The Alberta PCs, and the UCP allowed power companies in Alberta to take advantage of us, and we ended paying dearly for it.
Great highlight of minimum allowable operating temperatures. This is a WIDELY overlooked fact by investors and project managers of plants who don’t consider how cold or warm a site may get. Warm weather can sometimes have a cost but cold weather always does (space heating and materials). If you aren’t running, your revenue that day is $0.
This situation is very reminiscent to Texas spat with polar vortex conditions few years back. And what made the situation worse? After investigation it was concluded that the state over relied on renewables-namely wind-destroy it's based load capacity-by non investment-forcing the Texas on more than few occasions to overwork it's based load natural gas plants compounded by the fact that a shortage of labor added to the issue-yes cold pipes freeze & you need labor to unthaw those pipes, who knew. This lack of insight cause direct deaths. It worked the same why when the heat wave hit wind was not there because of wind speeds-yet no deaths so climate hawks should keep that in mind.
The point is that electrical production cannot be meet with current renewables. It has to match demand and frequency-between 60 or 80 hz depending on country-and Albert is another example of why renewables are a waste of good carbon chasing bad production.
Renewables aren't the issue. Allowing power companies to outright gouge us, with market manipulation, and economic witholding is. In Alberta, we can thank the Alberta PCs, notably, Ralph Klein, the power companies, such as TransAlta, and the UCP for this hot mess we got ourselves into. If Albertans are foolish enough to let this continue, it doesn't make us better off.
When you say "power companies gouge us" what do you mean? Canadian for the most part-especially in Alberta-are either private or Crown companies. Albertans are served by AltaGas Utility, Direct Energy Regulated Services, ENMAX Power Corporation, and EPCOR Energy Alberta. I believe EnMax is owned by the city of Calgary. All if not almost all of the utilities operations mostly consist of gas and based on the Utilities Consumer Advocate (UCA) 12-month average, from September 2022 to August 2023, the cost of electricity was 11 to 13 times more expensive than natural gas in Alberta. Given Canada size and sparse population she operates under a Coercive Monopoly for many key sectors & utilities fall under it. This structure was created because of fear of American companies, so the reason why Canada finds it's self in this position is political, they design the structures & as a results utilities are operating within this structures to recoup the cost that the government either Federal or provinces requires them to charge. Keep in mind utilities have to go to the regulators and ask-which means prove-that the rate they are asking for is justifiable under the existing rules.
One or two reactors could have gone a very long way in avoiding the crisis in the past few days. But, better late than never.
If you decide to write a Substack, you’ve got lots to write on. And we’d subscribe. Thank you for sharing the links.
About a decade and a half ago, the Alberta PCs were looking at the prospects of nuclear power for Alberta. Albertans said no to it, because of legitimate safety concerns, and the problem with the disposal of the nuclear waste.
On January 31, 2023 tree branches destroyed the Austin grid rendering nuclear and coal power plants into expensive paper weights. Oops. ;)
I see solar and wind as good technologies to supplement existing ones, but I can't imagine solar and wind being the main grid energy provides. It's dangerous and stupid to aim for that.
I personally think for the power grid nuclear is the best ecologic and scalable option.
Nuclear power is a very good option if it weren’t for the political and regulatory constraints. And as many other writers point out, nuclear is extremely expensive because we only build it once in a while. If we started building lots of nuclear power plants, we’d see the costs come down as we re-learned how to build them. And the grid would have a fantastic source of reliable and domestic power.
Wind and solar can realistically only save fuel for the grid. And that’s only when the sun is shining/ wind is blowing. As the Alberta case shows, you still need an entire grid to handle max electricity demand when wind and solar go missing. So if we’re honest about wind and solar, we’d only value them based on the fuel they save the grid as a whole.
But that’s the flaw with how politicians approach wind and solar: most don’t view the grid as a system and ignore the system costs of a technology.
Well put.
Nice analysis.
These kind of analyses of local electrical grids clearly show that both wind and solar are highly constrained by geography. Solar and wind make sense for a few unusual geographies, but not most of the world. Particularly not in Asia where the majority of humans live and energy needs are the greatest.
Agreed, it's highly constrained. Solar and wind might make sense in a remote area with a lot of sun/wind that is otherwise fuel constrained to save fuel shipping costs to that area. But a one sized shoe doesn't fit everyone.
Correction: Wind energy is proportional to the CUBE of wind speed, not the square of wind speed:
https://www.irena.org/Energy-Transition/Technology/Wind-energy
Yes, cubed is correct, not squared. Good catch
Thank you for this in depth look at the Alberta grid. I live in Alberta and there is a lot of criticism of our provincial government over the grid. Electricity in most provinces is a provincial government monopoly and prices are lower. But, these provinces have legacy hydroelectric power. Try to build a new hydroelectric dam. Our First Nations are sick and tired of having their land flooded out with minimal compensation. And, the population of Alberta keeps growing because we have a free enterprise spirit and an oil and gas industry that subsidizes the province. Overall it is a good place to live. We'll get some more gas fired power plants soon and the grid will be ok for awhile. The provincial government is trying to minimize the destabilizing effects of adding too many "renewables".
As an aside, I have an off grid cabin in British Columbia. I'm concerned about the new LiFeP batteries that are in a shed in the freezing cold. About -30C. I hope they survive. Anyone have any experience with this type of battery at these temperatures? I will find out soon enough if they survive this cold snap.
If you find out how the batteries preformed, please let us know. Unfortunately, no personal experience with LFP at those extreme temperatures. What do you use them for?
We have a 5kw solar panel setup with 10 kwh of LFP storage. Works well in summer. In early winter, I have had to heat the batteries with a propane heater in order to charge with a gas generator. I have a Sol Ark 12K inverter charger. All looks and works great when its warm. I only use this setup for recreation. And I am riding out this cold snap back in Alberta, in town, with good ol NG furnace roaring.
All the full time people near our cabin in BC that are off grid are trying to get on the BC grid but BC Power doesn't want to bring in power to isolated places anymore. There may be some frozen lead acid batteries in the neighborhood after this. I'll find out soon enough.
I went out to the BC cabin and stayed for a couple of days. The battery shed with the LFP batteries was -20C (-4F) inside on arrival. I had to heat the batteries to 5C with a propane heater and a space heater connected to the generator to get batteries warmed up enough to charge and discharge. It looks like the Sol Ark 12 K is set that way to protect the batteries.
I shut the heater off at night. One night got cold (-14C, 7F) and the system stopped working and shut down. In the morning I had to heat the batteries back up to 5C to get batteries working again.
I will do some modifications to the battery storage area with more insulation in winter and with a smaller area that requires heating. Maybe the batteries can handle the draw of a 100 watt small heater and this will be enough heat to keep the batteries working on cold nights.
One interesting observation on this trip is that I cleaned about 1 foot of snow off the solar panels. About 50% of the 5kw system had ice build up and wouldn't come clean. I managed to get a few hours of 750 watts or 14% of capacity that helped recharge the batteries.
Good thing I'm just doing this in my retirement for fun!
Thanks for the update. Very interesting to see how your experience matches what we’re seeing on a much larger scale with solar and storage on a much larger scale too.
There is justifiable criticism of the UCP government in Alberta, and the Alberta PCs, because of what they did, to cause these problems we are experiencing with our power generation system. When we, the power consumers, are allowed to get robbed, we don't end up being the winners. It's absolutely right to put the blame squarely on them for what has happened.
https://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/ndp-urged-to-re-establish-alberta-electricity-advantage/wcm/8e56067a-4a20-4063-a2d7-7c59e4b60c29/amp/
https://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/auc-finds-transalta-breached-the-rules-in-power-price-fixing-case
https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/conditions-have-changed-government-kills-planned-changes-to-albertas-electricity-market
https://twitter.com/disorderedyyc/status/1694444834441114062?s=19
https://twitter.com/TheRealDKGray/status/1745512137337004308?s=19
DK Gray has years of experience working with the power industry in Alberta, and is an energy economist.
It is a crime what happened in Alberta. And the Keystone pipeline which would have exported badly needed heavy oil to US refineries. That's diesel and diesel is the life blood of the economy. The Crony Biden regime are traitors to America.
Nuclear was always the path forward for Alberta to clear the way for future Oil Sands development.
Bruce Power wanted to build 4.4 GW of domestic CANDU reactors near Peace River in 2007, instead of Alberta throwing $billions down the sewer on Chinese built nutty wind & solar scams. As soon as that project was announced these slimy, foreign funded ENGOs sprouted out of nowhere like "The Alliance for a Nuclear Free Alberta" which kiboshed the deal. The whole energy infrastructure in Alberta has been under supreme attack from foreign funded ENGOs, whom accept only one form of energy = nutty Wind & Solar scams. Anyone who supports wind & solar in Alberta is a toadie for the foreign agents of economic destruction for Alberta.
https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/canada-nuclear-power.aspx
Fortunately, they are belatedly joining 3 other provinces in an SMR development program which would facilitate to using them for power and steam for Oil Sands extraction:
Strategic Plan for Deployment of SMRs Nuclear Power for Alberta, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick & Ontario, Small Modular Reactors. May 2022:
https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/de9ebaba-81a7-456e-81a2-2c57cb11412e/resource/62319fa5-aa5a-4329-b980-5c85a924c7c7/download/energy-interprovincial-strategic-plan-deployment-of-smrs-2022.pdf
Fed up with those corrupt organizations destroying Alberta's economy, the Alberta Gov't funded Steve Allan to do the Nemeth Report, a public inquiry into anti-Alberta energy campaigns. Of course all the pseudo-environmentalists were screaming "CONSPIRACY THEORIES, CONSPIRACY THEORIES" at the top of their lungs. They sure didn't like anyone revealing the sources of their $billions in funding = foreign funded mostly.
https://www.alberta.ca/public-inquiry-into-anti-alberta-energy-campaigns.aspx
https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/c9dc1da7-ba4a-4944-addd-758a5c5d3e87/resource/abac6864-af4a-462d-a25c-2903f04a0476/download/energy-public-inquiry-into-anti-alberta-energy-campaigns-key-findings.pdf
https://open.alberta.ca/publications/public-inquiry-into-anti-alberta-energy-campaigns-report
https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/3176fd2d-670b-4c4a-b8a7-07383ae43743/resource/a814cae3-8dd2-4c9c-baf1-cf9cd364d2cb/download/energy-report-public-inquiry-anti-alberta-energy-campaigns-2021.pdf
The UCP made a bad assumption that Donald Trump would return to power for the second time. $7.5 billion was thrown away on the pipeline, because there are loan guarantees that are unaccounted for. It's par for the course, because the UCP have done so many pricey shenanigans, that cost us a fortune. The Alberta PCs were the exact same way, for an extremely long time.
By far and away the priciest shenanigans are funding nutty wind & solar scams that are a complete waste of capital. Alberta should always have pushed for nuclear in order to supply low emissions energy to the Oil Sands and the Alberta electrical supply.
Well Trump won the election, but it was stolen from him. Even the unelected Biden crony regime, if they weren't the enemies of the American people, would have gone ahead with Keystone. That they didn't is programmed destruction of the American economy, just as Trudeau is doing to Canada's economy. Not much you can do when your governments are the archenemy of the people or anti-populist. It's a time for revolution.
America is energy dominant!! We don’t need to rely on foreign countries like Trump and Bush before him wanted us to do. Obama and Biden made America energy dominant while Trump bankrupted the energy industry in 2020.
Much warmer down here in the western addition (10F currently). We have been feeding the "Old Timer" fireplace insert with oak for the last 2 days. Looks like the cold front will move out of the area in a couple of days.
Thanks for the details on how the grid was keep up during the latest weather event up north. The "Survive, not operate" detail seems to be important........ I recall that engine block heaters came in handy when trying to operate trucks/cars in upstate Minnesota during winter.
And what you're saying highlights the importance of having a backup system: A wood fireplace, dual fuel generator, something, to get people through this. Stay warm!
The EV trucks will be able to power a house for several days.
Cudos to the old fart electrical grid engineers and managers that didn't cave with no backup plan to the Green Weenies. You saved hundreds or thousands of lives. Well done.
This isn't the issues with Alberta's power problems.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/ottawa-tells-energy-firms-to-start-powering-down-coal-fired-plants/article1373738/
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/new-premier-prentice-says-canada-needs-new-markets-for-alberta-oil/article20651943/
https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/parties-promise-to-close-alberta-coal-plants-encourage-renewable-energy/wcm/647fd51d-b0c2-47ee-830d-f88563fbd174/amp/
That's not the cause of the problems in Alberta. The Alberta PCs, and the UCP allowed power companies in Alberta to take advantage of us, and we ended paying dearly for it.
https://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/ndp-urged-to-re-establish-alberta-electricity-advantage/wcm/8e56067a-4a20-4063-a2d7-7c59e4b60c29/amp/
https://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/auc-finds-transalta-breached-the-rules-in-power-price-fixing-case
https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/conditions-have-changed-government-kills-planned-changes-to-albertas-electricity-market
https://twitter.com/disorderedyyc/status/1694444834441114062?s=19
https://twitter.com/TheRealDKGray/status/1745512137337004308?s=19
The UCP needs to be fired for what they have caused.
From personal experience. When the sky is not most!y clear, your solar output plummets! Add cold onto that and you are screwed!
Great highlight of minimum allowable operating temperatures. This is a WIDELY overlooked fact by investors and project managers of plants who don’t consider how cold or warm a site may get. Warm weather can sometimes have a cost but cold weather always does (space heating and materials). If you aren’t running, your revenue that day is $0.
Yep! It’s a big oversight
This situation is very reminiscent to Texas spat with polar vortex conditions few years back. And what made the situation worse? After investigation it was concluded that the state over relied on renewables-namely wind-destroy it's based load capacity-by non investment-forcing the Texas on more than few occasions to overwork it's based load natural gas plants compounded by the fact that a shortage of labor added to the issue-yes cold pipes freeze & you need labor to unthaw those pipes, who knew. This lack of insight cause direct deaths. It worked the same why when the heat wave hit wind was not there because of wind speeds-yet no deaths so climate hawks should keep that in mind.
The point is that electrical production cannot be meet with current renewables. It has to match demand and frequency-between 60 or 80 hz depending on country-and Albert is another example of why renewables are a waste of good carbon chasing bad production.
Renewables aren't the issue. Allowing power companies to outright gouge us, with market manipulation, and economic witholding is. In Alberta, we can thank the Alberta PCs, notably, Ralph Klein, the power companies, such as TransAlta, and the UCP for this hot mess we got ourselves into. If Albertans are foolish enough to let this continue, it doesn't make us better off.
When you say "power companies gouge us" what do you mean? Canadian for the most part-especially in Alberta-are either private or Crown companies. Albertans are served by AltaGas Utility, Direct Energy Regulated Services, ENMAX Power Corporation, and EPCOR Energy Alberta. I believe EnMax is owned by the city of Calgary. All if not almost all of the utilities operations mostly consist of gas and based on the Utilities Consumer Advocate (UCA) 12-month average, from September 2022 to August 2023, the cost of electricity was 11 to 13 times more expensive than natural gas in Alberta. Given Canada size and sparse population she operates under a Coercive Monopoly for many key sectors & utilities fall under it. This structure was created because of fear of American companies, so the reason why Canada finds it's self in this position is political, they design the structures & as a results utilities are operating within this structures to recoup the cost that the government either Federal or provinces requires them to charge. Keep in mind utilities have to go to the regulators and ask-which means prove-that the rate they are asking for is justifiable under the existing rules.
These links should make it clear as to what exactly happened.
https://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/ndp-urged-to-re-establish-alberta-electricity-advantage
https://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/transalta-agrees-to-pay-56m-for-power-price-manipulation-in-alberta
https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/conditions-have-changed-government-kills-planned-changes-to-albertas-electricity-market
https://calgary.citynews.ca/2023/03/30/albertans-repay-energy-bill-rebate/#:~:text=Starting%20April%201%2C%20Albertans%20on,to%20the%20cap%20being%20removed.
https://twitter.com/disorderedyyc/status/1694444834441114062?s=19