Excellent. Very readable description of a technical issue. I had heard that wind turbines did not do well in extemely cold weather but now I know why.
I think the reliability problem is even worse. The grid must supply power not only 24-7, 365 but electric resource planners also determine how much generating capacity is necessary to meet the probability of losing load not more than once in ten years the so-called loss of load expectation (LOLE) reliability criterion. Current resource assessments are based on observations of the existing uncorrelated generating resources over many years that show that unplanned outages do not happen at the same time. As you showed, that is not the case for wind and solar – they are highly correlated. Resource analysis for wind and solar must account for this.
The unacknowledged problem is what planning horizon should be used for weather-dependent resources to ensure that that the grid does not run out of electric energy when it is needed the most. This probabilistic planning process will be similar to watershed planning for the hundred-year flood. Inevitably, an extreme event will exceed the planning criteria and when that happens to the electric grid there will be a catastrophic blackout.
We need reliable, energy-dense, on-shore power generation instead of the intermittent, maintenance intensive disaster of off-shore wind, that also happens to be destructive to avian life and destructive to the tourism industry. Once reliable power generation is available, no smart meters are needed to switch individuals' washing machines off when there is no wind. I made a case for that here:
However, it is well argued here that the "Smart Meter" strategy that some European countries are pushing is completely untractable in northern territories such as Alberta, where indeed people would just freeze to death when their smart meter denies them power.
Roger, the turbines get locked down at -30c to prevent catastrophic failure so it does not matter if there is wind blowing you still get zero.
Friday I was driving from Calgary to SW Saskatchewan and it was quite windy the whole way and yet even tho the temps were ~-20 ish we were producing around 11% of our capacity, I’m not sure why, maybe AESO has decided not to play around with useless renewables when the cold rolls in
Sunday afternoon, cold and calm and our wind is at 1.5% useless
Perhaps the biggest problem with this report, which is excellent and comprehensive, is that this is not an isolated occurrence, but becoming the norm throughout those nations that have pushed for the end of oil and gas usage. It appears that Alberta suffered through a dunkelflaute, the best word I know of, and could well suffer more. thank goodness they had alternative sources at the ready
Jason Doering has pointed out that grid alerts in Alberta used to be rare, something like 3 between 2007 and 2017 but now they happen often.
And even though the change is no coal fired generation and lots of useless renewables the advocates insist it cannot be the ruinables even though that is the change.
If renewables advocates said anything logical they would wink out of existence.
Well done! So any one of the geniuses that shoveled taxpayer money into the blast furnace of renewables want a bridge? I’ve got one to sell them. They might be interested since they’re so easily conned.
I would expect the good people of Alberta may be more interested in holding them to account as to why their carefully laid plans failed so dismally. I know I would if I lived there
Excellent. Very readable description of a technical issue. I had heard that wind turbines did not do well in extemely cold weather but now I know why.
I think the reliability problem is even worse. The grid must supply power not only 24-7, 365 but electric resource planners also determine how much generating capacity is necessary to meet the probability of losing load not more than once in ten years the so-called loss of load expectation (LOLE) reliability criterion. Current resource assessments are based on observations of the existing uncorrelated generating resources over many years that show that unplanned outages do not happen at the same time. As you showed, that is not the case for wind and solar – they are highly correlated. Resource analysis for wind and solar must account for this.
The unacknowledged problem is what planning horizon should be used for weather-dependent resources to ensure that that the grid does not run out of electric energy when it is needed the most. This probabilistic planning process will be similar to watershed planning for the hundred-year flood. Inevitably, an extreme event will exceed the planning criteria and when that happens to the electric grid there will be a catastrophic blackout.
We need reliable, energy-dense, on-shore power generation instead of the intermittent, maintenance intensive disaster of off-shore wind, that also happens to be destructive to avian life and destructive to the tourism industry. Once reliable power generation is available, no smart meters are needed to switch individuals' washing machines off when there is no wind. I made a case for that here:
https://www.wildhorsewisdom.xyz/p/horses-like-running?r=31a4ti&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false
However, it is well argued here that the "Smart Meter" strategy that some European countries are pushing is completely untractable in northern territories such as Alberta, where indeed people would just freeze to death when their smart meter denies them power.
Roger, the turbines get locked down at -30c to prevent catastrophic failure so it does not matter if there is wind blowing you still get zero.
Friday I was driving from Calgary to SW Saskatchewan and it was quite windy the whole way and yet even tho the temps were ~-20 ish we were producing around 11% of our capacity, I’m not sure why, maybe AESO has decided not to play around with useless renewables when the cold rolls in
Sunday afternoon, cold and calm and our wind is at 1.5% useless
http://ets.aeso.ca/ets_web/ip/Market/Reports/CSDReportServlet
Perhaps the biggest problem with this report, which is excellent and comprehensive, is that this is not an isolated occurrence, but becoming the norm throughout those nations that have pushed for the end of oil and gas usage. It appears that Alberta suffered through a dunkelflaute, the best word I know of, and could well suffer more. thank goodness they had alternative sources at the ready
You’re exactly right that this isn’t isolated. It’s happened - more or less- multiple times in the past year or so.
Jason Doering has pointed out that grid alerts in Alberta used to be rare, something like 3 between 2007 and 2017 but now they happen often.
And even though the change is no coal fired generation and lots of useless renewables the advocates insist it cannot be the ruinables even though that is the change.
If renewables advocates said anything logical they would wink out of existence.
https://jasondoering.substack.com/
Well done! So any one of the geniuses that shoveled taxpayer money into the blast furnace of renewables want a bridge? I’ve got one to sell them. They might be interested since they’re so easily conned.
This is the result of electing a leftwing provincial govt ONCE in decades.
Elections have consequences.
Elections sure do have consequences!
I would expect the good people of Alberta may be more interested in holding them to account as to why their carefully laid plans failed so dismally. I know I would if I lived there
Thank you!
Excellent presentation of information and wordsmithing!
IEA has been corrupted, data as unreliable as wind and solar.
Yes, the IEA seems to be about lobbying for an agenda these days.
The price of honesty is zero, yet free wind and solar cost and arm and a leg.
The next shoe to drop is the coming election in germany